A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
