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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd